Is AI Taking Everyone's Job?: Volume 7

If you follow the AI newscycle or read headlines from major news sources, you’ll notice a constant theme circulating: AI is shrinking the labor force and already starting to replace human workers. That can be a scary proposition for the future, as the seismic shift is happening all around us. That feels like a constant boulder being thrown on our shoulders as we march down an uncharted path. This is where ‘fear headlines’ can be successful at distorting our view: “AI will eliminate X million jobs.” “Entire functions automated overnight.” “Company X projects 50% less human workers in the next 18 months due to AI.” I read these headlines the same as you, but want to share an alternative perspective to help you filter through the noise as the world changes all around us. 

1) Fear is big business

There is a grim and science-backed reality baked into our 24/7 news cycle: Negativity drives online news consumption. According to a 2023 study, for a headline of average length, each additional negative word increased the click-through rate by 2.3%. Fear equals big business for media companies that rely on clicks to drive advertising revenue. Understanding this framework helps me digest AI articles without immediately developing an emotional reaction to the headline. I find it challenging to think critically when strong emotions (good or bad) are tied to a topic. Reminding myself of why a headline might be worded a certain way helps me focus on the content and formulate my own opinion.

2) What’s really impacting jobs right now

The labor market is a complicated web, with many variables that at any given time can impact the overall health of the job market. AI is definitely becoming a larger force, but by no means is AI the only reason for corporate layoffs. There are several factors that impact the broader jobs market:

• Over hiring during Covid era
• Federal policy decisions
• Interest rate environment
• Legislation
• Global macro economic conditions

AI seems to generate the most interest and becomes an easy scapegoat any time a company announces layoffs. It also seems easier for CEOs to use AI as a crutch instead of addressing some of these more complex issues (at least in the public domain) that might be impacting their business. It’s important for me to take all of these facts into play when trying to understand how real a headline is and what it could mean for me.

3) Headlines don’t always equal reality

I try to take headlines, both positive and negative, as inputs to form my own opinions and hypotheses. Specific to AI and the labor market, I run the article through a filter to try and understand if there are broader implications I should pay attention to:

• Was this AI or accounting? Sometimes it’s a pivot from overhiring, a poor decision, or a reorg that would have happened with or without AI.
• Is this an industry, company, or country trend? I try to spot trends and correlate whether or not the trend will impact the entire country, or will it be isolated to a specific industry. For example, many of the AI related layoff announcements have been from the major tech companies. We’ve yet to see this trend spread to other industries, at least not yet. 
• What is the scope and time horizon? Near-term trims can coincide with long-term reinvestment in new roles (eg., automation ops, compliance, evaluation). If cuts and hires occur together, the story is reshaping, not retreating.

This gives me a consistent framework to understand the ‘why’ behind a layoff announcement and how I can use that information in my AI journey. It’s not perfect, but has proved more helpful than scanning headlines and being influenced by fear. 

If you take away only one learning from this week, remember to focus on what you can control. The truth is, no one knows exactly how AI is going to disrupt the labor market in the short, medium or long term. All we know is that change is coming, and it’s hard to understand how significant the shift will be as we live through it in real time. It wasn’t that long ago that thousands of people across the country worked in mail rooms. Imagine what was going through their minds as email was introduced into the workplace. In a flash, an entire job function vanished from corporate America. While AI is new, disruptive, and moving at the speed of light, this is not the first time technology will reshape how companies operate. And it won’t be the last.